I think Julian Simon was a brilliant man with a giant intellect and a gift for explaining the world around us. As a result of discovering his writings I've become more positive and grateful ... and look forward to the future.
Last March I reviewed Simon's 'It's Getting Better All the Time: 100 Greatest Trends of the Last 100 years'.
A few weeks ago I got my hands on a copy of the only Julian Simon book to be printed after his unfortunate and premature death. Printed in 1999, only 127 pages. Don't be mislead by the brevity of the book. It is absolutely packed with useful info and is a wonderful catalyst for clear thinking. And the three endorsements on the rear of the book? Written by Stephen Moore (Cato), Penn Jillette (yes, that guy), and P.J. O'Rourke (author of Eat The Rich).
Like 'It's Getting Better ...,' Hoodwinking the Nation is a powerful and under-appreciated book. In the former, Simon explains that life is getting better and that human ingenuity is clearly the ultimate resource, using a litany of facts and figures. In the latter title, Simon explains why so many people are pessimistic in spite of the avalanche of facts.
My favorite story about Julian Simon is that of his bet with the modern Malthusian, Paul Ehrlich. In short, Simon bet Ehrlich (author of 'The Population Bomb') that the price of 5 commodities would go down over a decade rather than up. Simon won overwhelmingly and has since been vindicated again and again. Wager details here.
It would be easy to consider every part of the book a notable highlight, here are a few:
1. Forward by Ben Wattenberg, p. ix, describes Simon's wager w/ Ehrlich and the inexplicable fact that the latter won a MacArthur 'Genius' award. Also noted: "It was not a good idea to ridicule capitalism, or free markets, or human liberty, in Julian's presence."
2. The vanishing farmland scam.
3. p. 29, Simon explains why he wrote the book and the dangers/costs of misinformation and misguided policies.
4. The seductiveness of Malthusian 'logic.'
5. p. 33, The concept of carrying capacity does not apply to humans over the long-term.
6. Free lunches? Sometimes. In the proper context.
7. p. 38, Differences between Karl Marx and Adam Smith briefly explained in a manner I had not considered.
8. Always good to see the great Hayek mentioned as a reference point.
9. Chapter 5, Why are So Many Biologists Alarmed? pp. 62-63, A few comments from biologists show consistent arrogance and contempt for sound economics.
10. p. 74, Journalistic methods vs. statistics. The critiques of the writings of Bill Bennett and Al Gore are excellent.
11. p. 103, "Oliver Wendell Holmes carried the manuscript of his first book w/ him in a satchel to every social engagement, for fear of losing it in a fire while he was away."
12. p. 111, Simon makes a compelling case for environmentalism as a religion.
13. The often self-fulfilling prophecy of research "... discovering problems that will elicit funding for research to mitigate the problem."
This is a wonderful book and I believe a must-read. Though in order to understand it in proper context I would recommend reading It's Getting Better All the Time first. But do be sure to read Hoodwinking the Nation
Misc. links:
Book Review: It's Getting Better All the Time: 100 Greatest Trends of the Last 100 Years
All previous Julian Simon related posts
Julian Simon - The Doomslayer (Wired) (or PDF here)
Julian Simon Remembered: It's A Wonderful Life
Amazon.com: Hoodwinking the Nation by Julian Simon
The Global Warming Challenge
Free Julian Simon books online:
The Hoodwinking of a Nation
Thursday, January 01, 2009
Book Review: Hoodwinking the Nation by Julian Simon
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1 comments:
"5. p. 33, The concept of carrying capacity does not apply to humans over the long-term."
WTF?! This would be laughable if it wasn't so horrifying.
We’ve already exceeded global carrying capacity. We are now in “overshoot”. Global population is nearing 7 billion. Different theorists using different methods seem to end up agreeing that global carrying capacity is probably about 2 billion.
(This assumes some level of social justice and a moderate, low by US standards, standard of living. More is possible if you accept a cattle car / Matrix-esque "life".) In any case, we will get to that much-lower-than-7-billion number the hard way (wars, famine, disease, and their accompanying losses of environmental quality, freedom, and social justice) OR the less hard way (immediately and drastically reducing our population voluntarily). Yes, all of us, yes, everywhere. There is no scenario anywhere in which population growth is a "good thing" long term.
Yes a drop in population would cause problems, but none of those problems are as big as the problems, suffering, and environmental collapse that is certain to occur if we don’t.
It’s too late for any “us” vs “them” arguments or any belief that national boundaries will do much to help anyone in the long run. This is a global issue with local and nation-state consequences. For example, immigration is a consequence of overpopulation, not a cause of it. Likewise, global climate change is not impressed by national boundaries.
One of the key factors in this scenario is also our sense of time. (Google “hyperbolic discount function”.) This is a slow motion crash that requires immediate action, a bit like trying to steer a supertanker that's on a crash course by putting in consistent input over a multi year time frame, and the one effective input is for all of us everywhere to stop making babies. The supertanker analogy is also apt because it was the "one time gift" of oil that allowed us to get this far out on a carrying capacity limb, and peak oil has already happened.
No technological / "alternative energy" options have the capacity or can be ramped up fast enough to avoid major global calamity. That isn't to say we shouldn't do them. Aggressively shifting to alternative energy is necessary, just not sufficient.
For more comprehensive analysis of all this I suggest
Approaching the Limits www.paulchefurka.ca
Bruce Sundquist on environmental impact of overpopulation http://home.alltel.net/bsundquist1/
The Oil Drum Peak Oil Overview - June 2007 (www.theoildrum.com/node/2693)
...and of course the classic "Overshoot" by Catton
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